Market Measures

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Omens of a Recession

Market Measures

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How accurate are markets at predicting recessions? tastytrade's Research Team crunched some numbers and examined some data to uncover the answer.

  • S&P 500, 1970 to present
  • Recorded all recessions since 1970
  • Recorded number of large selloffs greater than 1% in each quarter

We find that the number of large down days is actually greatest in the quarter before the first quarter of a recession. During the recession, there are typically more down days than the average quarter, but not as many as the quarter preceding the recession.

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