Market Measures

Monday – Friday | 9:00 – 9:20a CT

Market Forecasting

Market Measures

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Market gurus are prominent in the financial community, and their forecasts often influence how people trade. Today we discuss a recent study by David Bailey, Jonathan Borwein, et al. that investigates the accuracy of these market predictions. They introduce a new method for evaluating forecasts, where forecasts are weighted based on the timeframe and specificity of prediction. They found that 48% of all the forecasts tested were correct and that 66.1% of the forecasters had accuracies below 50%.

Reference: Bailey, David H. and Borwein, Jonathan and Salehipour, Amir and López de Prado, Marcos, Do Financial Gurus Produce Reliable Forecasts? (February 28, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3339657 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339657

Market Measures More installments

See All »

Latest tastytrade Videos As of August 12

Most Shared From the last 30 days