Market Measures

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Market Forecasting

Market Measures

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Market gurus are prominent in the financial community, and their forecasts often influence how people trade. Today we discuss a recent study by David Bailey, Jonathan Borwein, et al. that investigates the accuracy of these market predictions. They introduce a new method for evaluating forecasts, where forecasts are weighted based on the timeframe and specificity of prediction. They found that 48% of all the forecasts tested were correct and that 66.1% of the forecasters had accuracies below 50%.

Reference: Bailey, David H. and Borwein, Jonathan and Salehipour, Amir and López de Prado, Marcos, Do Financial Gurus Produce Reliable Forecasts? (February 28, 2018). Available at SSRN: or

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