Market Measures

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Analyst Estimates & Actuality

Market Measures

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Each year, Wall Street analysts try to predict the ending price of the S&P 500. In this segment, we dive into those estimates and propose an alternative projection tool.

From the start of the year, most analysts projected a higher market by year end with the minimum estimate being higher than the starting S&P 500 value in January 2018. These expectations were far off target, even from the biggest U.S. banks.

Since projecting a final price is nearly impossible, we can use the implied volatility of an underlying to project an expected range of prices for the year. Tune in to hear Tom and Tony’s take of using information from the option’s market to forecast price ranges.

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