Expected move is the amount that a stock is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of implied volatility for binary events. We use this calculation on the day before the binary event or very close to the expiration date. The expected move of an stock for a binary event can be found by calculating 85% of the value of the front month at the money (ATM) straddle. Add the price of the front month ATM call and the price of the front month ATM put, then multiply this value by 85%. Another easy way to calculate the expected move for a binary event is to take the ATM straddle, plus the 1st OTM strangle and then divide the sum by 2.
We only use this for a binary event because the accuracy of premium decay and all of the variables associated with implied volatility are too rich to accurately reflect expected move for a longer time period.
To reset your password, please enter the same email address you use to log in to tastytrade in the field below. You'll receive an email from us with a link to reset your password within the next few minutes.
Register today to unlock exclusive access to our groundbreaking research and to receive our daily market insight emails.
Sign up for a free tastytrade account to download the slides and you’ll also receive daily market insights from our experts and a roundup of our best shows from each day.