tastytrade logo
man walking in front of Tesla showroom

Dec 28, 2021

Tesla Stock Price: What to Expect in 2022

By:James Blakeway

Tesla’s (TSLA) 2021 return of 57% may not be quite as impressive as the parabolic, 740% return of 2020, but it still stands out against indices like the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. Tesla now sits firmly in the top 10 components of both indices, making it a target of investors and traders around the world as everyone waits to see what 2022 will bring for the dominant electric vehicle manufacturer.

Screen_Shot_2021-12-28_at_2.23.15_PM.png

Despite being a car maker, there’s been no doubt that Tesla trades more like a tech stock as investors bet big on the EV technology to transform the way we utilize, and store, cleaner energy. Tesla was added to the Nasdaq-100 in 2013 and for the last 5 years has consistently outperformed the index, even posting a positive return in 2018.

TESLA Outlook

So, what’s next for the stock? While we obviously can’t predict the direction, the option markets give current guidance as to the expected magnitude of movement for Tesla in 2022. Here are the current expected moves for various points next year:

Screen_Shot_2021-12-28_at_2.30.21_PM.png

TESLA Option Pricing

With the options pricing in 60%-70% volatility throughout next year some large moves may still be ahead for those trading Tesla. Traders should keep in mind this is a one standard deviation range, meaning the stock is expected to fall within such a calculated range 68% of the time.

Looking back at Tesla, we calculated the historical 30 day expected ranges to see how often Tesla “played by the rules” and stayed within the one or two standard deviation range from 2017 until now:

Screen_Shot_2021-12-28_at_2.34.15_PM.png

More often than not, Tesla managed to stay within the one standard deviation expected range for the last four years. However, Tesla’s sometimes huge movements push it outside of the two standard deviation range more often than the market prices in. 

Trade Ideas in TSLA 

How can traders play Tesla for the start of 2022 now that a $1,000 share value prices many traders out of naked options strategies? One way, assuming a bullish or bearish outlook is to use a simple credit spread.

Traders who believe that Tesla will drop in the early new year maybe interested in this call spread found by the Alpha Boost system. The trade combines the 1140 short call and 1145 long call. The trade has a 64% probability of profit and expires in January, before Tesla’s next earnings announcement.

Screen_Shot_2021-12-28_at_2.37.46_PM.png

Traders more bullish on TSLA maybe interested in the opposite trade, selling a put spread. This trade also has a 64% probability of profit and is for the January monthly expiration.

Screen_Shot_2021-12-28_at_2.43.54_PM.png

Both trades have a 14% higher probability of success than being long or short stock and each trade costs less than one third a single share of Tesla!

Sign up for the Alpha Boost newsletter for more trade ideas sent directly to your inbox and check out the Follow Feed on tastyworks for the latest strategies from tastytrade co-hosts.


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastytrade content is provided solely by tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. tastytrade, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastytrade is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparison, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastytrade is not a licensed financial advisor, registered investment advisor, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities products, please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options and the Risk Disclosure for Futures and Options found on tastyworks.com. 

tastytrade is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastytrade.

tastyworks, Inc. ("tastyworks") is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. tastyworks offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastyworks does not give financial or trading advice nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastyworks’ systems, services or products. tastyworks is a wholly owned subsidiary of tastytrade, Inc (“tastytrade”).

tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastytrade (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastyworks pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastyworks’ brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastyworks. tastytrade is the parent company of tastyworks. tastyworks and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastytrade has different privacy policies than tastyworks.

Quiet Foundation, Inc. (“Quiet Foundation”) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastytrade The information on quietfoundation.com is intended for U.S. residents only. All investing involves the risk of loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Quiet Foundation does not make suitability determinations, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of Quiet Foundation’s systems, services or products.

Small Exchange, Inc. is a Designated Contract Market registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The information on this site should be considered general information and not in any case as a recommendation or advice concerning investment decisions. The reader itself is responsible for the risks associated with an investment decision based on the information stated in this material in light of his or her specific circumstances. The information on this website is for informational purposes only, and does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation, or specific needs of any individual investor. Trading in derivatives and other financial instruments involves risk, please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options. tastytrade is an investor in Small Exchange, Inc.

© copyright 2013 – 2022 tastytrade. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of use on tastytrade.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastytrade’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use.