Alert

How do you construct a $100k portfolio, using just ETFs and futures? Find out in the new Top Dogs series.
tastytrade logo
arrow pointing upward gold market

Jul 7, 2022

Gold Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Gold Correction Searches for a Low

By:Michael Boutros

Gold prices head into the start of Q3 trading just above the objective yearly open with XAU/USD still holding multi-year uptrend support. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the threat for a deeper correction in the medium-term rises after numerous failed attempts to break resistance. These are the levels we’re tracking into the open of Q3.

GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: MONTHLY TIMEFRAME (NOVEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2022) (CHART 1)

gold-pricing-monthly.png
Source – Trading View; Prepared by Michael Boutros

The March rally failed just ahead of the record highs at 2075 with the subsequent pullback taking prices back into yearly open support at 1829. IF prices are indeed heading higher, losses would need to be limited to the 2008/2015 slope parallel with broader bullish invalidation set to the March 2021 monthly close low in 1707.

GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: WEEKLY TIMEFRAME (SEPTEMBER 2018 TO JUNE 2022) (CHART 2)

gold-pricing-weekly.png
Source – Trading View; Prepared by Michael Boutros

A closer look at the weekly chart shows gold resting just above a key Fibonacci confluence we’ve been tracking at 1818/29. We’re looking for possible inflection off this range with a close below the low-week close at 1791 needed to shift the focus towards confluent uptrend at 1729 -- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

KEY FIBONACCI CONFLUENCE

Resistance stands at the 38.2% retracement of the March decline / 2021 high-close at 1903- a breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to invalidate the multi-month downtrend with such a scenario exposing the 61.8% retracement at 1962 and the yearly high-week close at 1988.

BOTTOM LINE

Gold is resting on a key pivot range around the yearly open. The focus heading into Q3 is on a break of the 1818-1903 range with the threat weighted to the downside while below the March trendline. We’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low in the third quarter – ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favourable opportunities closer to uptrends support.


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastytrade content is provided solely by tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. tastytrade, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastytrade is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparison, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastytrade is not a licensed financial advisor, registered investment advisor, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities products, please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options and the Risk Disclosure for Futures and Options found on tastyworks.com. 

tastytrade is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastytrade.

tastyworks, Inc. ("tastyworks") is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. tastyworks offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastyworks does not give financial or trading advice nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastyworks’ systems, services or products. tastyworks is a wholly owned subsidiary of tastytrade, Inc (“tastytrade”).

tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastytrade (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastyworks pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastyworks’ brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastyworks. tastytrade is the parent company of tastyworks. tastyworks and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastytrade has different privacy policies than tastyworks.

Quiet Foundation, Inc. (“Quiet Foundation”) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastytrade The information on quietfoundation.com is intended for U.S. residents only. All investing involves the risk of loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Quiet Foundation does not make suitability determinations, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of Quiet Foundation’s systems, services or products.

© copyright 2013 – 2022 tastytrade. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of use on tastytrade.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastytrade’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use.