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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK Jobs Report; US Retail Sales; Inflation Data from Canada, the Eurozone, and the UK

Nov 16, 2021

By: Christopher Vecchio

FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • US consumption trends are in focus after last week’s blowout October US CPI report.
  • Inflation pressures are no longer being dismissed as transitory by markets, which means three of the four inflation reports due this week have a high likelihood of producing volatility in markets.
  • Strong jobs numbers and hot inflation data out of the UK could help provide the spark the British Pound needs to recoup its BOE-induced losses.

For the full week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

11/16 TUESDAY | 07:00 GMT | GBP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (AUG) & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEP)

The UK economy has seemingly overcome recent upticks in COVID-19 infections as the economy has been opened full-tilt, and the outcome for the UK labor market has been a positive one. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the UK economy gained+185K jobs in the three months through August 2021, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.1% in September. The upcoming UK jobs report, which covers various aspects of the labor market in June, July, August, and September, points to an improving outlook that may help resuscitate BOE rateb hike odds.

11/16 TUESDAY | 13:30 GMT | USD RETAIL SALES (OCT)

Consumption is the most important part of the US economy, generating around 70% of the headline GDP figure. The best monthly insight we have into consumption trends in the US might arguably be the ‘retail sales advance’ report. In the wake of the October US inflation report (CPI) that showed the highest price pressures since 1990, traders are wondering if US consumers began to close their wallets, finding certain goods and services too expensive.

Nevertheless, according to a Bloomberg News survey, headline US retail sales are expected to have grown by +1.1% in October after posting a modest +0.7% gain in September (m/m). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q’21 growth tracker, currently at +8.2% annualized, will be updated after the US retail sales data are released.

11/17 WEDNESDAY | 07:00 GMT | GBP INFLATION RATE (OCT)

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill started the week by noting that “if we don’t act there is a danger that inflation achieves some self-sustaining momentum that we will have to resist down the road.But equally I think that if we act prematurely there is a danger that we derail some of the recovery which is still in some respects quite fragile.”

With this context, particularly after the November BOE meeting, the upcoming UK inflation report will carry additional weight. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the October UK inflation rate (CPI) is due in at +3.9% from +3.1% (y/y), while the core inflation rate is due in at +3.1% from +3.2% (y/y). If UK inflation rates jump considerably like their American counterparts, speculation around the first BOE rate hike should be revived, which should help the British Pound recover from its early-month woes.

11/17 WEDNESDAY | 10:00 GMT | EUR INFLATION RATE (OCT)

The final October Euroarea inflation rate (CPI) report is the top item of interest for the Euro this week, although ECB President Christine Lagarde may have taken some wind out of the report’s sails. ECB President Lagarde noted that the ECB still sees“inflation moderating in the next year, but it will take longer to decline than originally expected,”a suggestion that any upside price pressures won’t be met by a response by the central bank. According to Bloomberg News, the headline Euroarea inflation reading is due in at +4.1% from +3.4% (y/y), while the core reading is due in at +2.1% from +1.9% (y/y).

11/17 WEDNESDAY | 13:30 GMT | CAD INFLATION RATE (OCT)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, the October Canada inflation rate (CPI) is forecasted to show an increase of +4.7% from +4.4% (y/y), while the core reading is due in at +3.9% from +3.7% (y/y). As has been the case in recent months, while these figures remain lofty, they are not due to show the same type of acceleration that their American counterparts did just last week. But more upside price pressures could spur a faster rate hike cycle by the BOC, which has already surprised markets in recent weeks by abruptly ending their QE program; rising BOC rate hike odds would be supportive of the Canadian Dollar near-term.

Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

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